Iran Talks Won’t Change U.S. Missile Plans in Europe, Kerry Says

Daily News Article — Posted on November 8, 2013

Secretary of State John Kerry shakes hands with Poland’s Defense Minister Tomasz Siemoniak in front of an F-16 aircraft at Lask Air Force Base. (Reuters)

(by Patryk Wasilewski, The Wall Street Journal) WARSAW – The U.S. said Tuesday it was going ahead with its missile-defense plans for Europe despite [planned negotiations] with Iran, one of the main threats the system is designed to counter.

The U.S. expects to put land-based missile interceptors in northern Poland by 2018, three years after a site in Romania is to become operational. The base in Poland will seek to protect Europe and the U.S. from ballistic missile attacks that could be launched mainly from Iran.

On the only European stop of a weeklong tour focused on the Middle East, Secretary of State John Kerry was asked in Poland whether that element of the system could be abandoned, considering U.S. diplomacy and international talks with Iran over its nuclear program.

“There is no agreement with Iran,” Mr. Kerry told a news conference in Warsaw. “Nothing has changed and the plans for missile defense are absolutely on target,” he added.

“We intend to provide for the next phase by 2018 and will deploy that site by that period. Nothing has changed at this point and I don’t foresee it changing.”

A new round of nuclear talks between Iran and world powers is set for Thursday in Geneva. With Tehran under pressure to allow international inspection of its nuclear facilities, the U.N. nuclear watchdog said Tuesday that Iran had invited its director-general to visit the country and the invitation was under consideration. …

On Monday, Kerry went to Saudi Arabia to try to reassure the strategic Gulf Arab ally, which is worried about any warming of U.S. ties with its regional arch rival, Iran.

His message on missile defense in Poland reinforced that Washington isn’t abandoning contingency plans* for hostile acts by Iran. [*A contingency plan is a plan that is made for dealing with something that might possibly happen and cause problems in the future.]

Under a previous missile-defense plan for Europe, devised by President George W. Bush, Poland was to become a defense site in 2015 to protect the continent from ballistic missile threats.

The prospect led to angry protests from Russia, which threatened to install more missiles in its Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad in response because it believed the system in Poland, close to Russia’s borders, would reduce Moscow’s deterrent capabilities.

President Obama in 2009 proposed a new, scaled-down setup that at the time was more acceptable to the Kremlin [the Russian government], prompting officials in Poland, a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) since 1999, to publicly question the U.S. commitment to Polish security.

Faced with an increasingly resurgent Russia, its former communist-era overlord, Poland plans to invest about $45 billion by 2022 in new military equipment. Mr. Kerry said U.S. companies would “compete vigorously” for contracts that will be part of that program.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry didn’t immediately react to Mr. Kerry’s comments. But it has long opposed U.S. plans for a global missile defense system with installations in nearby Poland and Romania.

The Russian Foreign Ministry has described as insufficient guarantees that the system won’t be used against Russia or threaten its nuclear arsenal.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reiterated Moscow’s dissatisfaction with the missile-defense plans during an official visit to Japan over the weekend.

“We do not hide the fact that the creation of a U.S. global missile defense system…causes us great concern,” Mr. Shoigu said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has described the missile defense system as a step backward for Russia’s relations with the U.S. and NATO and an attempt to bolster security at Moscow’s expense. …

Questions

NOTE to Students: Read the "Background" below before answering the questions.

1. What announcement did the Obama Administration make this week regarding U.S. missile-defense plans?

2. What is the purpose for establishing a missile-defense system in the Poland?

3. How did Secretary of State John Kerry respond when asked whether the U.S. would cancel the plan for Poland based on negotiations with Iran?

4. a) Which Gulf country (and U.S. ally) is worried about U.S. relations with Iran?
b) Ask a parent or grandparent: is this something Russia should be concerned about? and to explain his/her answer.

5. a) Why is Russia angered over the planned U.S. missile-defense system in Poland?
b) Deterrence is a strategy intended to dissuade/persuade an adversary from undertaking an action not yet started. Is the reason (that the missile-defense system would reduce Moscow's deterrent capabilities) for Russia's anger justified? Explain your answer.

6. How did President Obama's 2009 decision regarding the missile-defense system cause officials in Poland to react?

7. a) Poland and the U.S. are both members of NATO. What is the purpose of NATO?
b) What should be more important to the U.S.: helping our ally Poland or pacifying the Russians? Explain your answer.

CHALLENGE QUESTION: President Obama's decision in 2009 to rescind (cancel, revoke, repeal) President Bush's plan to install a missile-defense system in Poland was a disappointment to Poland and the Czech Republic, as well as conservatives in the U.S. who believe the system was a necessary protection for us and our allies. The Wall Street Journal and Associated Press reported at the time:

President Obama in September 2009 announced his plans to scrap a missile-defense agreement the Bush Administration had negotiated with Poland and the Czech Republic. Both governments took huge political risks—including the ire of their former Russian overlords—in order to accommodate the U.S., which wanted the system to defend against a possible Iranian missile attack. The White House justified its decision by claiming to have new intelligence showing that Iran's long-range missile capabilities were not as advanced as previously believed. Instead, it said the U.S. would upgrade and deploy currently available missile interceptors useful mainly for intercepting short- and medium-range missiles, where, it said, Iranian capability "is developing more rapidly than previously projected." But the Administration's argument is difficult to credit, not least because our sources told us as early as February that the Administration was prepared to abandon those sites—which is to say, well before the allegedly new intelligence on Iran's nuclear program became available. (Read more in a separate commentary from 2009 at: wsj.com)

The fact that President Obama has changed his mind on placing U.S. missile defense systems in Poland has not been widely reported in the media. Instead, it is just a mention in larger articles on Secretary Kerry's trip to the Middle East. (The AP headline on YahooNews was: "Kerry visits Poland to discuss security, business") Why do you think the media has not chosen to make this major reversal of policy a focus of any news reports? Explain your answer.

Background

History of the U.S. Missile Defense System in Poland:

In 2009, President Obama cancelled the missile defense shield plan for Poland and the Czech Republic that President Bush had begun before leaving office. Read about it here: studentnewsdaily.com/daily-news-article/u-s-shelves-nuclear-missile-shield
In 2010, President Obama dispatched Patriot defensive missiles to four countries - Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait – and ordered two U.S. ships to remain in the Gulf which are capable of shooting down Iranian missiles. Washington also helped Saudi Arabia develop a force to protect its oil installations.
The deployment came after President Obama’s attempts to emphasize diplomacy over confrontation in dealing with Iran failed to persuade Tehran to open its nuclear installations to international controls. The White House in 2010 began trying to engineer an agreement for sanctions focused on Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, believed to be in charge of the atomic program. Read more at: studentnewsdaily.com/daily-news-article/us-raises-stakes-on-iran-by-sending-in-ships-and-missiles

IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM:

Iran’s 20 year secret nuclear program was discovered in 2002. Iran says its program is for fuel purposes only, but it has been working on uranium enrichment which is used to make nuclear bombs.
Under the United Nations’ NPT (Non Proliferation Treaty) countries are not allowed to make nuclear weapons (except for the 5 that had nuclear weapons prior to the treaty – the U.S., Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom).
Safeguards are used to verify compliance with the Treaty through inspections conducted by the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency).
The IAEA issued a report on Sept. 15, 2008 that said Iran has repeatedly blocked an investigation into its nuclear program and the probe is now deadlocked.
The U.N. Security Council has already imposed three sets of sanctions on Iran over its nuclear defiance. Despite the sanctions, Iran has refused to end its nuclear program.
A group of U.S. and Russian scientists said in a report issued in May 2009 that Iran could produce a simple nuclear device in one to three years and a nuclear warhead in another five years after that. The study, published by the nonpartisan EastWest Institute, also said Iran is making advances in rocket technology and could develop a ballistic missile capable of firing a 2,200-pound nuclear warhead up to 1,200 miles “in perhaps six to eight years.”
The Iranian government has called for the destruction of Israel on numerous occasions. It is believed that once obtained, Iranian President Ahmadinejad would use nuclear weapons against Israel.

THE U.S. MISSILE-DEFENSE SYSTEM:
The Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) was proposed by U.S. President Ronald Reagan on March 23, 1983 to use ground-based and space-based systems to protect the United States from attack by strategic nuclear ballistic missiles. The SDI was intended to defend the United States from attack from Soviet ICBMs by intercepting the missiles at various phases of their flight.

The initiative focused on strategic defense rather than the prior strategic offense doctrine of mutual assured destruction (MAD), that assumed that neither side would start a nuclear war because it would not be able to avoid imminent destruction. Reagan’s “Star Wars” program drew the Soviets into a costly effort to mount a response. The race depleted Soviet funds and triggered the economic difficulties that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. (Many in the media and liberal circles ridiculed President Reagan for being a warmonger AND a dunce; they did not understand the necessity of a missile defense system).

BALLISTIC MISSILE and DEFENSE:

A ballistic missile is a missile that follows a sub-orbital ballistic flightpath with the objective of delivering one or more warheads (often nuclear) to a predetermined target. The missile is only guided during the relatively brief initial powered phase of flight and its course is subsequently governed by the laws of orbital mechanics and ballistics. To date, ballistic missiles have been propelled during powered flight by chemical rocket engines of various types. (from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistic_missile)

National missile defense (NMD) as a generic term is a type of missile defense: a military strategy and associated systems to shield an entire country against incoming Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) or alternately more short-range ballistic missiles. The missiles could be intercepted by anti-ballistic missiles, or possibly by lasers. They could be intercepted near the launch point (boost phase), during flight through space (mid-course phase), or during atmospheric descent (terminal phase).
Missile defense is a system, weapon, or technology involved in the detection, tracking,interception and destruction of attacking missiles. Originally conceived as a defense against nuclear-armed ICBMs, its application has broadened to include shorter-ranged non-nuclear tactical and theater missiles.
an anti-ballistic missile (ABM) is a missile designed to counter ballistic missiles (a missile for missile defense; an interceptor). A ballistic missile is used to deliver nuclear, chemical, biological or conventional warheads in a ballistic flight trajectory. The term “anti-ballistic missile” describes any antimissile system designed to counter ballistic missiles. However the term is used more commonly for ABM systems designed to counter long range, nuclear-armed Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). (from wikipedia)